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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ cardinals week 3, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
1-1
23
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
24
ARICardinals
1-1
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
13
7
0
3
23
Cardinals
10
7
7
0
24

Spread

OAK logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
364
227
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
5.2
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.12
Passing Yards
231
108
Comp/Att
17/34(50%)
12/26(46%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.24
Rushing Yards
133
119
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
27%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
20%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+9.50
-2.88
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-14
Sack EPA
-4.59
-3.30
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
123
104
Penalty EPA
-11.10
-10.82

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model75.1%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals-5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+21.2%
Cover Probability
63.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+241
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,327
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-42.2
Away QB Adjustment
-47.2
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
192.0
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gradkowski headshot

B. Gradkowski

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-47.2
Value
Ptile
11/19
1.2
58
11/23
-5.3
17
12/03
-9.3
4
12/10
-2.4
34
12/17
-4.6
20
12/28
-11.6
2
11/22
-0.4
47
11/26
-0.5
46
12/06
6.9
88
12/13
-2.4
35
D. Anderson headshot

D. Anderson

Proj. Value
-3.3
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
Value
Ptile
11/30
-4.8
17
10/04
0.1
51
10/11
-11.1
2
10/18
-6.3
13
10/25
-8.2
7
11/01
-8.3
7
12/27
-3.7
26
01/03
-6.0
14
09/12
1.2
56
09/19
-7.3
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Raiders logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
30
Yards / Game
10
28
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
2
30

EPA

EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
22
19
EPA / Rush
5
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
16
11
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
21
RZ Efficiency
18
1
Cardinals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Cardinals logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
20
Yards / Game
31
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
29

EPA

EPA / Play
31
19
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
25
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
21
26
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
6
4th Down Efficiency
24
2
RZ Efficiency
29
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/26
-17
L
L
U
12/06
3
W
W
O
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/20
1
W
W
O
12/27
-14
L
L
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
O
09/19
2
W
L
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/14
-15
L
L
U
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
21
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
01/10
6
W
W
O
01/16
-31
L
L
O
09/12
4
W
W
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O