OAKRaiders
2-3
37
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
77°F
4 mph
29
LACChargers
2-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
77°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
20
7
0
37
Chargers
3
3
0
23
29
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
412
421
Total Plays
58
82
Yards / Play
7.1
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.01
Passing Yards
282
331
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
38/60(63%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.41
-0.00
Rushing Yards
130
90
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.01
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
28
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.94
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-7
-9
Sack EPA
-1.13
-1.31
Penalties
14
9
Penalty Yards
136
86
Penalty EPA
-14.92
-8.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+65
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,409
Home Field
-14.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.6
Market Regression
-22.9
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+8.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
21
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
21
19
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
13
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
27
15
Turnover EPA / Game
12
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
13
4th Down Efficiency
27
32
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
22
Yards / Game
7
22
Passing Yards / Game
1
19
Rushing Yards / Game
30
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
19
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
31
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
21
Interceptions / Game
16
15
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U