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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chargers week 8, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-5
16
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
8 mph
24
LACChargers
3-3
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
3
3
16
Chargers
7
14
0
3
24

Spread

OAK logo
+16

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
180
346
Total Plays
54
56
Yards / Play
3.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
81
246
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.26
Rushing Yards
99
100
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.38
-6.59
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-28
-3
Sack EPA
-5.32
-1.22
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-3.21
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-15.5

Win Probability

Market89.8%
Model88.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-30.5
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
361.8
Model Spread
-15.5

Quarterbacks

J. Russell headshot

J. Russell

Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-30.5
Value
Ptile
12/14
-1.1
44
12/21
4.4
80
12/28
0.7
56
09/14
-5.9
15
09/20
-9.3
4
09/27
-8.8
5
10/04
-9.0
4
10/11
-7.4
9
10/18
-2.1
37
10/25
-8.0
8
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
12/21
9.6
97
12/28
2.7
70
01/03
-4.9
16
01/11
4.1
78
09/14
-0.3
48
09/20
4.0
76
09/27
2.6
67
10/04
3.7
74
10/19
-0.7
46
10/25
7.0
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21

EPA

EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
22
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
29
18
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
28
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
6
31
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
10
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-23
L
L
P
12/21
11
W
W
P
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/14
-4
L
W
O
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-23
L
L
U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-1-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/21
17
W
W
P
12/28
31
W
W
P
01/03
6
W
W
P
01/11
-11
L
L
P
09/14
4
W
L
O
09/20
-5
L
L
O
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-10
L
L
O
10/19
-11
L
L
O
10/25
30
W
W
P