OAKRaiders
2-5
16
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
8 mph
24
LACChargers
3-3
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
3
3
16
Chargers
7
14
0
3
24
Spread
+16
Total
UNDER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
180
346
Total Plays
54
56
Yards / Play
3.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.13
Passing Yards
81
246
Comp/Att
14/22(64%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.26
Rushing Yards
99
100
Rush Attempts
27
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
38%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+0.38
-6.59
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-28
-3
Sack EPA
-5.32
-1.22
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
31
--
Penalty EPA
-3.21
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model88.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+296
Home nfelo
1,548
Away nfelo
1,330
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.6
Home QB Adjustment
+13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-30.5
Market Regression
-6.0
Final Difference
361.7
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
J. Russell
Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-30.5
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
10
Yards / Game
31
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
26
Rushing Yards / Game
21
21
EPA
EPA / Play
29
23
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
22
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
25
Interceptions / Game
22
20
Fumbles / Game
32
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
22
4th Down Efficiency
18
20
RZ Efficiency
29
18
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
23
Yards / Game
10
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
15
Rushing Yards / Game
31
29
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
28
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
6
31
Fumbles / Game
3
23
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
7
4th Down Efficiency
13
28
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-4-3
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-1-5
O/U