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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chargers week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-4
24
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
69°F
5 mph
17
LACChargers
4-4
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
69°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
10
7
0
24
Chargers
3
0
14
0
17

Spread

OAK logo
+7

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
489
314
Total Plays
63
68
Yards / Play
7.8
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.01
Passing Yards
298
239
Comp/Att
14/21(67%)
23/47(49%)
Yards / Pass
14.2
5.1
EPA / Pass
+0.51
-0.10
Rushing Yards
191
75
Rush Attempts
41
15
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
20
20
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.01
-2.63
Sacks
1
6
Sack Yards
-1
-35
Sack EPA
-4.73
-5.56
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
45
31
Penalty EPA
-6.23
+1.09

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.6%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+85
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-32.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.2
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
+3.9
Final Difference
125.9
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Value
Ptile
11/08
-1.0
43
11/14
-0.5
46
11/21
0.0
49
11/25
-9.2
5
12/05
1.6
58
12/12
-7.0
10
12/19
-0.1
49
12/26
10.8
98
01/02
3.8
75
11/06
-2.4
34
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-8.2
Value
Ptile
12/26
1.7
59
01/02
-5.3
16
09/11
2.2
67
09/18
4.9
81
09/25
-4.2
23
10/02
3.8
76
10/09
-3.0
32
10/23
-3.9
25
10/31
-1.7
38
11/06
2.8
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20

EPA

EPA / Play
10
29
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
8
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
25
Interceptions / Game
27
15
Fumbles / Game
6
31
Turnover EPA / Game
11
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
32
4th Down Efficiency
8
2
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
6
29
Passing Yards / Game
16
16
Rushing Yards / Game
16
27

EPA

EPA / Play
4
30
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
12
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
25
10
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
25
4th Down Efficiency
20
5
RZ Efficiency
10
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
W
O
09/25
10
W
W
O
10/02
-12
L
L
U
10/09
5
W
W
U
10/16
7
W
W
U
10/23
-28
L
L
U
11/06
-14
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
2-7-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-14
L
L
O
01/02
5
W
P
O
09/11
7
W
L
U
09/18
-14
L
L
O
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
10
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/23
-6
L
L
O
10/31
-3
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
O