OAKRaiders
0-9
6
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
13 mph
13
LACChargers
5-4
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
72°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
0
0
3
6
Chargers
7
3
3
0
13
Spread
+10
Total
UNDER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
233
300
Total Plays
55
68
Yards / Play
4.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.17
Passing Yards
162
180
Comp/Att
16/34(47%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.24
-0.18
Rushing Yards
71
120
Rush Attempts
19
32
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.45
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
18
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
20%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.91
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-13
Sack EPA
-1.14
-3.88
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
41
40
Penalty EPA
-6.06
-4.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+210
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,376
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
+10.5
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
12
Yards / Game
32
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
32
23
EPA / Pass
31
21
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
16
Interceptions / Game
19
28
Fumbles / Game
28
6
Turnover EPA / Game
3
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
3
3
RZ Efficiency
1
14
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22
EPA
EPA / Play
12
25
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
26
Interceptions / Game
26
27
Fumbles / Game
2
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
14
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U