OAKRaiders
5-6
28
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
67°F
5 mph
13
LACChargers
6-5
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
67°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
14
7
0
7
28
Chargers
0
3
3
7
13
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
368
286
Total Plays
69
51
Yards / Play
5.3
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.22
-0.06
Passing Yards
117
265
Comp/Att
10/16(63%)
23/39(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
-0.03
Rushing Yards
251
21
Rush Attempts
52
8
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.6
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
14
--
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
53%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+3.39
-4.69
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
-0.52
-4.20
Penalties
13
3
Penalty Yards
105
19
Penalty EPA
-14.29
-2.50
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0
Win Probability
Market84.9%
Model84.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,393
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
-5.4
Market Regression
-15.2
Final Difference
300.0
Model Spread
-13.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.4
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
9
Yards / Game
10
1
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
2
4
EPA
EPA / Play
11
7
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
5
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
16
14
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
22
11
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
1
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
29
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
20
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
6
Interceptions / Game
11
26
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
12
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-3-1
O/U