OAKRaiders
4-10
13
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
67°F
7 mph
26
LACChargers
7-7
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
0
3
13
Chargers
3
7
10
6
26
Spread
-10
Total
UNDER
50
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
265
344
Total Plays
54
67
Yards / Play
4.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.12
Passing Yards
206
196
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
19/29(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.15
Rushing Yards
59
148
Rush Attempts
17
37
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
24
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
31%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-4.34
-8.10
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-5
Sack EPA
-0.48
-1.27
Penalties
12
3
Penalty Yards
73
24
Penalty EPA
-10.46
-2.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+86.9
Home QB Adjustment
+23.1
Away QB Adjustment
-63.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
M. McGloin
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-63.8
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
9
Yards / Game
23
23
Passing Yards / Game
30
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
14
EPA
EPA / Play
24
30
EPA / Pass
24
22
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
28
Interceptions / Game
24
24
Fumbles / Game
27
19
Turnover EPA / Game
9
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
5
24
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
8
21
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
13
11
EPA
EPA / Play
2
26
EPA / Pass
2
32
EPA / Rush
10
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
11
Interceptions / Game
5
31
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
28
4th Down Efficiency
1
6
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Chargers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U