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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chargers week 17, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

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  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
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    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
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    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
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    Calculate EV for spreads
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    Calculate the hold for odds
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    Calculate passer rating from stats

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-11
21
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
50°F
3 mph
24
LACChargers
6-9
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
50°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
0
14
21
Chargers
10
7
7
0
24

Spread

OAK logo
+8

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
265
210
Total Plays
57
50
Yards / Play
4.6
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.09
Passing Yards
--
140
Comp/Att
13/28(46%)
13/17(76%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.55
Rushing Yards
115
70
Rush Attempts
29
31
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
17
14
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
53%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.51
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.61
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
67
60
Penalty EPA
-10.48
-8.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+184
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.8
Home QB Adjustment
-22.3
Away QB Adjustment
-26.1
Market Regression
-35.4
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

T. Pryor headshot

T. Pryor

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-26.1
No recent game data available
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.3
Value
Ptile
10/15
-7.9
6
10/28
-3.9
25
11/01
2.9
69
11/11
4.5
79
11/18
-3.1
29
11/25
-3.0
30
12/02
-3.5
27
12/09
2.9
68
12/16
-6.9
10
12/23
-2.7
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
18
9
Passing Yards / Game
14
12
Rushing Yards / Game
29
5

EPA

EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
31
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
18
18
Fumbles / Game
16
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
29
4th Down Efficiency
31
8
RZ Efficiency
28
32
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
19
28
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
13
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
17

EPA

EPA / Play
19
32
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
28
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
25
Interceptions / Game
14
23
Fumbles / Game
23
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
14
24
RZ Efficiency
26
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/16
15
W
W
U
12/23
-11
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-11
L
L
O
10/28
-1
L
L
U
11/01
18
W
W
O
11/11
-10
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
W
O
11/25
-3
L
L
U
12/02
-7
L
L
U
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
O