OAKRaiders
2-3
7
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
7 mph
24
KCChiefs
5-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
63°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
0
0
7
Chiefs
0
7
7
4
18
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
274
216
Total Plays
71
61
Yards / Play
3.9
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.33
-0.11
Passing Yards
153
105
Comp/Att
18/34(53%)
14/31(45%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
3.4
EPA / Pass
-0.52
-0.45
Rushing Yards
121
111
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.05
+0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
27%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.21
-4.35
Sacks
9
3
Sack Yards
-63
-23
Sack EPA
-11.31
-5.79
Penalties
11
4
Penalty Yards
68
20
Penalty EPA
-8.11
-3.23
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,388
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
-36.7
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
T. Pryor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
7
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
30
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
24
9
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
19
Interceptions / Game
24
3
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
9
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
10
20
RZ Efficiency
5
17
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
29
Yards / Game
12
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
26
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
7
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
11
Interceptions / Game
1
31
Fumbles / Game
28
11
Turnover EPA / Game
32
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
28
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U