OAKRaiders
2-4
26
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
3 mph
16
KCChiefs
1-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
50°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
10
10
3
26
Chiefs
0
6
3
7
16
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
299
Total Plays
62
59
Yards / Play
5.5
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.20
Passing Yards
--
197
Comp/Att
14/28(50%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.28
Rushing Yards
135
102
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
8
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
17%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+1.20
-13.24
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-4.03
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
20
40
Penalty EPA
-1.33
-4.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.2
Home QB Adjustment
-10.1
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
B. Quinn
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
25
Yards / Game
18
19
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
29
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
19
32
EPA / Rush
31
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
10
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
16
26
Turnover EPA / Game
15
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
31
30
RZ Efficiency
28
16
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
28
Yards / Game
24
17
Passing Yards / Game
31
6
Rushing Yards / Game
5
17
EPA
EPA / Play
31
32
EPA / Pass
31
30
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
25
Interceptions / Game
31
23
Fumbles / Game
28
22
Turnover EPA / Game
4
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
32
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U