OAKRaiders
10-2
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
21°F
7 mph
21
KCChiefs
9-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
21°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
3
0
13
Chiefs
0
15
0
0
15
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
244
323
Total Plays
73
54
Yards / Play
3.3
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.20
Passing Yards
109
258
Comp/Att
17/41(41%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
2.7
9.9
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.07
Rushing Yards
135
65
Rush Attempts
31
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.4
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
28%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
25%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+5.34
-11.39
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-8
-6
Sack EPA
-2.43
-5.87
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
82
73
Penalty EPA
-12.16
-6.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+37
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,545
Home Field
+10.9
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.4
Net QB Adjustment
-25.3
Home QB Adjustment
+1.1
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
6
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
26
17
Rushing Yards / Game
6
27
EPA
EPA / Play
15
9
EPA / Pass
17
7
EPA / Rush
17
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
23
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
26
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
28
4th Down Efficiency
20
15
RZ Efficiency
13
4
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
20
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
12
14
EPA / Pass
16
21
EPA / Rush
12
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
31
Interceptions / Game
8
11
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
22
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
3
RZ Efficiency
28
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U