OAKRaiders
6-6
15
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
46°F
13 mph
26
KCChiefs
6-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
46°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
15
15
Chiefs
3
13
10
0
26
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
270
408
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.02
Passing Yards
200
243
Comp/Att
24/42(57%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.05
Rushing Yards
70
165
Rush Attempts
11
33
Yards / Rush
6.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.22
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
10
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.53
-3.83
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-13
-25
Sack EPA
-4.39
-4.26
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
39
69
Penalty EPA
-5.99
-5.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,558
Away nfelo
1,467
Home Field
+51.0
Base HFA
+56.2
Divisional Adj
-25.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
124.2
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
15
Yards / Game
18
29
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
15
24
EPA / Pass
16
19
EPA / Rush
22
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
17
Interceptions / Game
20
9
Fumbles / Game
31
21
Turnover EPA / Game
13
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
20
RZ Efficiency
8
18
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
3
23
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
5
31
EPA / Rush
5
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
5
18
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
25
4th Down Efficiency
29
30
RZ Efficiency
29
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U