OAKRaiders
6-6
9
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
47°F
19 mph
48
KCChiefs
8-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
47°F
19 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
6
0
9
Chiefs
8
21
3
10
42
Spread
-9.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
372
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
4.8
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.47
Passing Yards
246
240
Comp/Att
33/45(73%)
20/24(83%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
10.0
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.65
Rushing Yards
44
132
Rush Attempts
12
30
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.56
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
4
4
3rd Down %
36%
69%
3rd Down Conversions
4
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-22.28
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-17
-18
Sack EPA
-8.72
-4.69
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
85
63
Penalty EPA
-10.78
-10.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,647
Away nfelo
1,459
Home Field
+47.5
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+13.6
Net QB Adjustment
-14.1
Home QB Adjustment
-14.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-14.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
8
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
20
Rushing Yards / Game
28
19
EPA
EPA / Play
19
24
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
28
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
17
15
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
22
4th Down Efficiency
7
31
RZ Efficiency
29
16
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
26
Yards / Game
1
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
11
Rushing Yards / Game
12
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
5
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
13
32
Fumbles / Game
31
26
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
16
4th Down Efficiency
2
32
RZ Efficiency
11
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U