OAKRaiders
2-11
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
16 mph
31
KCChiefs
7-6
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
58°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
3
7
13
Chiefs
1
3
21
0
25
Spread
-11
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
280
388
Total Plays
77
59
Yards / Play
3.6
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.41
-0.22
Passing Yards
202
295
Comp/Att
27/56(48%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
9.5
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.19
Rushing Yards
78
93
Rush Attempts
17
27
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.30
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
16
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
28%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.14
-6.35
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-20
-2
Sack EPA
-5.00
-0.89
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
75
84
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-11.19
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-13.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
+12.5
Final Difference
259.9
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
2
Yards / Game
32
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
20
Rushing Yards / Game
32
28
EPA
EPA / Play
32
12
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
32
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
7
Interceptions / Game
19
30
Fumbles / Game
28
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
5
4th Down Efficiency
3
8
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
32
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
22
EPA
EPA / Play
9
25
EPA / Pass
12
27
EPA / Rush
4
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
1
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
32
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
21
13
RZ Efficiency
9
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U