OAKRaiders
7-8
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
12 mph
10
KCChiefs
10-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
7
8
25
Chiefs
3
0
7
0
10
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
201
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
5.1
2.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.27
Passing Yards
135
86
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
13/36(36%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
2.4
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.64
Rushing Yards
209
115
Rush Attempts
37
29
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.48
-8.74
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-25
-56
Sack EPA
-3.25
-9.05
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
77
39
Penalty EPA
-7.87
-3.21
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,438
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.8
Home QB Adjustment
+41.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+41.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
5
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29
EPA
EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
7
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
7
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U