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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chiefs week 17, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
7-8
31
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
12 mph
10
KCChiefs
10-5
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
30°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
10
7
8
25
Chiefs
3
0
7
0
10

Spread

OAK logo
+5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
344
201
Total Plays
67
72
Yards / Play
5.1
2.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.27
Passing Yards
135
86
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
13/36(36%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
2.4
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.64
Rushing Yards
209
115
Rush Attempts
37
29
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
21
17
Passing 1st downs
9
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
46%
39%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.48
-8.74
Sacks
4
7
Sack Yards
-25
-56
Sack EPA
-3.25
-9.05
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
77
39
Penalty EPA
-7.87
-3.21

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+131
Home nfelo
1,484
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+28.8
Home QB Adjustment
+41.7
Away QB Adjustment
+12.9
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.9
Value
Ptile
09/19
-6.5
11
10/17
-10.3
3
10/24
2.4
64
10/31
3.7
74
11/07
-4.2
22
11/21
-11.6
2
12/05
3.8
75
12/12
4.1
76
12/19
0.7
52
12/26
0.8
54
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+41.7
Value
Ptile
10/17
4.5
79
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-2.9
30
11/07
-0.2
48
11/14
9.5
96
11/21
2.7
67
11/28
9.6
97
12/05
-2.2
34
12/19
-4.3
21
12/26
9.2
96

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Raiders logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
5
14
Yards / Game
10
16
Passing Yards / Game
18
22
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16

EPA

EPA / Play
11
18
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
5
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
20
Interceptions / Game
16
22
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
18
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
18
29
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chiefs logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
16
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
9
Rushing Yards / Game
1
29

EPA

EPA / Play
16
19
EPA / Pass
13
11
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
6
Interceptions / Game
4
26
Fumbles / Game
15
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
7
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
-8
L
W
U
10/24
45
W
W
O
10/31
30
W
W
U
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/21
-32
L
L
U
11/28
-16
L
L
O
12/05
15
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/26
-5
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
22
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
L
U
11/07
-3
L
L
O
11/14
-20
L
L
O
11/21
18
W
W
U
11/28
18
W
W
O
12/05
4
W
L
U
12/12
-31
L
L
U
12/19
14
W
W
U
12/26
20
W
W
O