OAKRaiders
7-8
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
37°F
9 mph
23
KCChiefs
10-5
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
37°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
4
0
7
11
Chiefs
14
0
7
0
21
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
205
339
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
3.7
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.01
Passing Yards
157
150
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
15/25(60%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.37
Rushing Yards
48
189
Rush Attempts
16
39
Yards / Rush
3.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
23
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
21%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.13
-12.02
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-37
-9
Sack EPA
-8.03
-2.73
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
59
55
Penalty EPA
+1.88
-5.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+149
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,453
Home Field
+21.7
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+3.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
+6.2
Market Regression
-15.5
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.2
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
1
Yards / Game
24
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
7
Rushing Yards / Game
28
6
EPA
EPA / Play
19
5
EPA / Pass
21
3
EPA / Rush
20
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
8
Interceptions / Game
17
2
Fumbles / Game
27
23
Turnover EPA / Game
12
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
5
4th Down Efficiency
27
15
RZ Efficiency
8
22
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
22
Yards / Game
25
22
Passing Yards / Game
19
19
Rushing Yards / Game
6
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
15
14
EPA / Rush
1
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
21
Interceptions / Game
1
15
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
19
RZ Efficiency
12
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U