OAKRaiders
-
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
021
INDColts
-
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
3
7
17
Colts
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
+11
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
372
274
Total Plays
63
53
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
201
147
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.29
Rushing Yards
171
127
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
54%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.18
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-2.16
-6.84
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
51
31
Penalty EPA
-7.15
+1.67
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market81.7%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
Raiders+11.0
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+178
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,391
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+12.2
Final Difference
234.7
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
T. Pryor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
A. Luck
Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30
EPA
EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
24
21
EPA / Rush
16
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
11
EPA
EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
6
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U