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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ colts week 1, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
-
17
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
21
INDColts
-
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
3
7
17
Colts
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

OAK logo
+11

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
372
274
Total Plays
63
53
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
201
147
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
18/23(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.9
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.29
Rushing Yards
171
127
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.9
EPA / Rush
+0.16
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
10
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
54%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.18
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-2.16
-6.84
Penalties
8
3
Penalty Yards
51
31
Penalty EPA
-7.15
+1.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
IND logo
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-11.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market81.7%
Model79.4%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+11.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,395
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-4.8
Away QB Adjustment
-5.5
Market Regression
+11.6
Final Difference
234.0
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

T. Pryor headshot

T. Pryor

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-5.5
Value
Ptile
12/30
2.6
66
A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.8
Value
Ptile
11/04
9.2
95
11/08
1.1
57
11/18
-2.4
33
11/25
-4.5
22
12/02
0.6
54
12/09
-9.8
2
12/16
-2.9
31
12/23
-3.3
28
12/30
0.4
52
01/06
-2.1
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Raiders logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
24
14
Yards / Game
23
22
Passing Yards / Game
30
21
Rushing Yards / Game
11
30

EPA

EPA / Play
24
20
EPA / Pass
24
21
EPA / Rush
16
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
27
Interceptions / Game
24
21
Fumbles / Game
27
14
Turnover EPA / Game
9
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
23
4th Down Efficiency
10
18
RZ Efficiency
5
30
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Colts logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
29
Yards / Game
11
21
Passing Yards / Game
11
30
Rushing Yards / Game
21
11

EPA

EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
6
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
11
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
2
11
Turnover EPA / Game
22
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
28
4th Down Efficiency
22
6
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/16
15
W
W
U
12/23
-11
L
L
U
12/30
-3
L
W
O
IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
3
W
W
U
11/08
17
W
W
U
11/18
-35
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
2
W
W
O
12/09
4
W
W
O
12/16
-12
L
L
U
12/23
7
W
W
U
12/30
12
W
W
U
01/06
-15
L
L
U