OAKRaiders
7-8
20
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
023
INDColts
8-7
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
0
7
10
20
Colts
7
7
3
6
23
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
370
349
Total Plays
74
53
Yards / Play
5.0
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.20
Passing Yards
286
215
Comp/Att
30/47(64%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
9.3
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.50
Rushing Yards
84
134
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
19
7
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-9
Sack EPA
-2.65
-2.23
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
54
52
Penalty EPA
-8.14
-9.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+82
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,480
Home Field
+86.5
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+24.6
Net QB Adjustment
+41.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-42.3
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-42.3
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
28
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
24
EPA
EPA / Play
24
19
EPA / Pass
22
15
EPA / Rush
26
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
10
8
Turnover EPA / Game
13
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
24
16
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
14
14
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
10
20
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
21
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
20
Interceptions / Game
6
17
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
19
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Colts
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U