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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ cowboys week 12, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
3-7
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
24
DALCowboys
7-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
7
0
7
Cowboys
3
14
0
7
24

Spread

DAL logo
-13.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
305
494
Total Plays
62
56
Yards / Play
4.9
8.8
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.18
Passing Yards
181
299
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.28
Rushing Yards
124
195
Rush Attempts
24
25
Yards / Rush
5.2
7.8
EPA / Rush
+0.09
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
14
18
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
29%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-0.28
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-19
-10
Sack EPA
-3.78
-3.35
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
70
48
Penalty EPA
-7.28
-5.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model86.9%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+371
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,336
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.9
Away QB Adjustment
-15.3
Market Regression
-23.7
Final Difference
329.1
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

B. Gradkowski headshot

B. Gradkowski

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-15.3
Value
Ptile
10/29
-5.5
15
11/05
-0.6
47
11/13
-4.5
20
11/19
1.2
58
11/23
-5.3
17
12/03
-9.3
4
12/10
-2.4
34
12/17
-4.6
20
12/28
-11.6
2
11/22
-0.4
47
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
09/13
8.5
93
09/20
-5.2
19
09/28
1.5
60
10/04
-4.6
22
10/11
5.1
82
10/25
8.8
95
11/01
4.2
77
11/08
-0.6
46
11/15
-2.3
36
11/22
-2.0
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
31
3
Yards / Game
31
10
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
30
17
EPA / Rush
22
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
13
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
32
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
8
RZ Efficiency
29
26
Cowboys Offense vs Raiders Defense
Cowboys logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
23
Yards / Game
2
25
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29

EPA

EPA / Play
10
26
EPA / Pass
7
27
EPA / Rush
9
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
3
31
Fumbles / Game
12
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
28
RZ Efficiency
17
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-4
L
W
O
09/20
3
W
W
U
09/27
-20
L
L
U
10/04
-23
L
L
U
10/11
-37
L
L
O
10/18
4
W
W
U
10/25
-38
L
L
O
11/01
-8
L
W
U
11/15
-6
L
L
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
13
W
W
O
09/20
-2
L
L
O
09/28
14
W
W
U
10/04
-7
L
L
U
10/11
6
W
L
O
10/25
16
W
W
O
11/01
21
W
W
O
11/08
4
W
W
U
11/15
-10
L
L
U
11/22
1
W
L
U