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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ cowboys week 12, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
5-5
36
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
33
DALCowboys
7-3
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Raiders
14
3
10
6
3
36
Cowboys
6
7
6
14
0
33

Spread

OAK logo
+7

Total

OVER
51

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
509
439
Total Plays
77
70
Yards / Play
6.6
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.10
Passing Yards
366
375
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
32/48(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.17
Rushing Yards
143
64
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
28
23
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
7
4
3rd Down %
23%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-7
-2
Sack EPA
-3.35
-1.68
Penalties
14
14
Penalty Yards
110
166
Penalty EPA
-12.41
-21.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model75.0%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+223
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,444
Home Field
+46.0
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
-7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+8.4
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
-2.2
Final Difference
190.8
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
3.6
79
09/19
8.7
94
09/26
0.9
61
10/04
-3.9
25
10/10
-5.4
17
10/17
4.0
80
10/24
7.2
91
11/07
-1.4
42
11/14
0.7
58
11/21
-3.2
29
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
10/11
-4.9
16
09/09
9.5
96
09/19
-0.6
48
09/27
1.2
61
10/03
7.2
91
10/10
2.5
71
10/17
11.6
98
11/07
-2.3
36
11/14
6.6
90
11/21
-10.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Raiders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
18
8
Yards / Game
8
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
9
Rushing Yards / Game
28
20

EPA

EPA / Play
19
2
EPA / Pass
15
1
EPA / Rush
28
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
20
Interceptions / Game
17
1
Fumbles / Game
32
9
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Cowboys Offense vs Raiders Defense
Cowboys logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
7
11
Rushing Yards / Game
9
15

EPA

EPA / Play
6
28
EPA / Pass
4
28
EPA / Rush
20
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
11
Interceptions / Game
7
32
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
16
4th Down Efficiency
12
32
RZ Efficiency
5
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
6
W
W
O
09/19
9
W
W
U
09/26
3
W
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
U
10/10
-11
L
L
U
10/17
10
W
W
O
10/24
11
W
W
O
11/07
-7
L
L
U
11/14
-27
L
L
O
11/21
-19
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-2
L
W
O
09/19
3
W
W
U
09/27
20
W
W
O
10/03
8
W
W
O
10/10
24
W
W
O
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
4
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/14
40
W
W
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U