OAKRaiders
4-7
24
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
031
DALCowboys
6-5
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
1
14
0
3
18
Cowboys
7
7
7
10
31
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
305
352
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
5.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.06
Passing Yards
--
208
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.16
Rushing Yards
50
144
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.36
+0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
54%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.14
-7.94
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
--
-4.16
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
71
40
Penalty EPA
-7.34
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+263
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,398
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+71.8
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-81.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
M. McGloin
Proj. Value
-4.5
Team Elo Adj
-81.3
Value
Ptile
T. Romo
Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
26
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
30
25
Rushing Yards / Game
11
26
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
24
24
EPA / Rush
16
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
27
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Cowboys Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
17
21
Passing Yards / Game
17
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
6
26
EPA / Pass
11
32
EPA / Rush
3
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
9
31
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
3
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Cowboys
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U