OAKRaiders
0-1
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
8 mph
35
MIADolphins
0-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
3
13
Dolphins
7
0
14
14
35
Spread
+1.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
452
Total Plays
62
74
Yards / Play
6.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.22
Passing Yards
--
189
Comp/Att
24/48(50%)
18/30(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.12
Rushing Yards
23
263
Rush Attempts
14
43
Yards / Rush
1.6
6.1
EPA / Rush
-0.47
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
8%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
1
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.36
--
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-1.47
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-5.21
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model47.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,433
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.3
Home QB Adjustment
-3.8
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
-3.6
Final Difference
18.1
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
18
20
Passing Yards / Game
14
29
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12
EPA
EPA / Play
23
14
EPA / Pass
19
17
EPA / Rush
31
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
13
Interceptions / Game
18
27
Fumbles / Game
16
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
9
4th Down Efficiency
31
28
RZ Efficiency
28
2
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
28
Yards / Game
27
17
Passing Yards / Game
19
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17
EPA
EPA / Play
22
32
EPA / Pass
25
30
EPA / Rush
19
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
10
23
Fumbles / Game
19
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U