OAKRaiders
3-5
27
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
2 mph
24
MIADolphins
4-3
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
77°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
10
7
7
27
Dolphins
0
9
7
8
24
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
397
Total Plays
58
62
Yards / Play
6.5
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.03
Passing Yards
295
309
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
34/42(81%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.40
+0.29
Rushing Yards
84
88
Rush Attempts
27
19
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
23
Passing 1st downs
14
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
53%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.43
-5.12
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-2
Sack EPA
-3.79
-0.84
Penalties
10
11
Penalty Yards
105
107
Penalty EPA
-10.35
-12.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+26.1
Base HFA
+56.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-30.2
Net QB Adjustment
-24.9
Home QB Adjustment
-13.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
29
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
30
19
Rushing Yards / Game
25
14
EPA
EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
16
28
EPA / Rush
22
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
20
Interceptions / Game
20
28
Fumbles / Game
31
23
Turnover EPA / Game
13
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
9
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
20
Yards / Game
25
24
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
26
31
EPA / Rush
30
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
30
32
Fumbles / Game
13
18
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
30
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U