OAKRaiders
2-7
19
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
16 mph
34
MIADolphins
3-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
3
6
7
19
Dolphins
7
3
7
17
34
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
328
353
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
5.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.40
Passing Yards
268
271
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.2
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.68
Rushing Yards
60
82
Rush Attempts
17
26
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.2
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
25
Passing 1st downs
17
18
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
57%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.46
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-17
Sack EPA
-4.87
-2.88
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
49
23
Penalty EPA
-9.62
-5.56
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,427
Home Field
+31.4
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.3
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.3
Net QB Adjustment
+26.0
Home QB Adjustment
+16.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
9
Yards / Game
27
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
31
11
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
32
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
3
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
18
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
12
EPA
EPA / Play
21
12
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
31
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
16
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U