OAKRaiders
7-4
14
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
22 mph
34
MIADolphins
3-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
80°F
22 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
14
14
Dolphins
6
7
15
0
28
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
304
362
Total Plays
57
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.21
Passing Yards
258
153
Comp/Att
20/41(49%)
13/25(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.03
+0.09
Rushing Yards
46
209
Rush Attempts
14
44
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
18%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.72
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-2.61
-1.75
Penalties
10
8
Penalty Yards
91
79
Penalty EPA
-10.82
-9.25
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,513
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-23.6
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
+17.4
Market Regression
+38.3
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+17.4
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
6
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4
EPA
EPA / Play
10
11
EPA / Pass
13
14
EPA / Rush
8
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
3
Interceptions / Game
27
17
Fumbles / Game
6
32
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
4
4th Down Efficiency
8
23
RZ Efficiency
23
5
Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
29
Yards / Game
23
29
Passing Yards / Game
22
16
Rushing Yards / Game
10
27
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
30
Interceptions / Game
9
10
Fumbles / Game
27
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
25
4th Down Efficiency
19
5
RZ Efficiency
24
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
0-10
O/U