OAKRaiders
6-4
6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
043
ATLFalcons
3-7
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
3
0
6
Falcons
6
10
8
13
37
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
304
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
4.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.74
+0.01
Passing Yards
203
179
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.76
-0.09
Rushing Yards
40
125
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.87
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-32.44
-5.11
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-37
-6
Sack EPA
-19.41
-1.50
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
141
49
Penalty EPA
-13.60
-4.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-21.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
12
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
32
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Falcons Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
15
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
27
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
26
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U