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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ falcons week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-4
6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
43
ATLFalcons
3-7
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
3
0
6
Falcons
6
10
8
13
37

Spread

ATL logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
243
304
Total Plays
58
72
Yards / Play
4.2
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.74
+0.01
Passing Yards
203
179
Comp/Att
25/39(64%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.76
-0.09
Rushing Yards
40
125
Rush Attempts
14
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.87
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-32.44
-5.11
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-37
-6
Sack EPA
-19.41
-1.50
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
141
49
Penalty EPA
-13.60
-4.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-105
Home nfelo
1,427
Away nfelo
1,522
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-21.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.0
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
3.4
69
09/21
5.0
78
09/27
5.3
79
10/04
7.1
89
10/11
6.0
83
10/25
2.1
59
11/01
-2.5
27
11/08
-0.6
42
11/15
-2.1
28
11/22
5.8
82
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-10.0
Value
Ptile
09/13
6.3
86
09/20
7.3
90
09/27
-4.1
19
10/05
-0.0
46
10/11
-5.9
11
10/18
10.4
96
10/25
3.3
69
10/29
1.0
51
11/08
3.6
71
11/22
-13.9
0

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Falcons Defense
Raiders logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
10
19
Yards / Game
8
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
30
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
19
EPA / Pass
14
26
EPA / Rush
12
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
11
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
32
13
Turnover EPA / Game
3
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
16
4th Down Efficiency
3
7
RZ Efficiency
23
27
Falcons Offense vs Raiders Defense
Falcons logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
15
26
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23

EPA

EPA / Play
14
29
EPA / Pass
11
28
EPA / Rush
27
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
24
Interceptions / Game
11
23
Fumbles / Game
12
31
Turnover EPA / Game
26
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
15
31
RZ Efficiency
26
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
4
W
W
O
09/21
10
W
W
O
09/27
-16
L
L
O
10/04
-7
L
L
P
10/11
8
W
W
O
10/25
-25
L
L
O
11/01
10
W
W
U
11/08
5
W
W
O
11/15
25
W
W
U
11/22
-4
L
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-13
L
L
O
09/20
-1
L
W
O
09/27
-4
L
L
O
10/05
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
17
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
L
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/22
-15
L
L
U