OAKRaiders
4-2
33
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
6 mph
16
JAXJaguars
2-3
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
17
3
10
33
Jaguars
0
6
3
7
16
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
344
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
239
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.19
Rushing Yards
144
105
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
60%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.01
-8.06
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.02
Penalties
11
12
Penalty Yards
117
97
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-14.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model53.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+3
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+87.7
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+30.6
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+8.7
Final Difference
24.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18
EPA
EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
17
9
EPA / Rush
17
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23
EPA
EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
25
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U