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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ jaguars week 7, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-2
33
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
6 mph
16
JAXJaguars
2-3
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
70°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
17
3
10
33
Jaguars
0
6
3
7
16

Spread

OAK logo
+2

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
344
344
Total Plays
71
60
Yards / Play
4.8
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
239
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
23/43(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.19
Rushing Yards
144
105
Rush Attempts
34
16
Yards / Rush
4.2
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
44%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
13
Red Zone %
60%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.01
-8.06
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-2.02
Penalties
11
12
Penalty Yards
117
97
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-14.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model53.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,504
Home Field
+89.3
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.2
Net QB Adjustment
-13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
+16.0
Market Regression
+8.0
Final Difference
23.3
Model Spread
-1.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
-5.3
13
12/20
-2.2
34
12/24
-2.9
29
01/03
-5.3
13
09/11
4.0
78
09/18
8.5
94
09/25
-1.4
37
10/02
7.0
90
10/09
1.2
58
10/16
-0.8
43
R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
12/06
8.1
94
12/13
3.6
76
12/20
3.7
77
12/27
4.5
80
01/03
-12.5
1
09/11
-0.5
44
09/18
2.2
66
09/25
-6.0
11
10/02
2.6
69
10/16
-2.3
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
9
24
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
15
21
EPA / Pass
17
9
EPA / Rush
17
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
9
32
Fumbles / Game
15
24
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
9
4th Down Efficiency
20
12
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
25
20
Yards / Game
22
24
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
23
23

EPA

EPA / Play
24
14
EPA / Pass
28
21
EPA / Rush
25
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
31
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
10
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
3
RZ Efficiency
11
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
7
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-16
L
L
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-3
L
P
O
12/13
35
W
W
O
12/20
-6
L
L
U
12/27
-11
L
L
O
01/03
-24
L
L
U
09/11
-4
L
L
O
09/18
-24
L
L
O
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
3
W
W
O
10/16
1
W
W
U