OAKRaiders
6-6
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph
38
JAXJaguars
7-5
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
10
7
7
31
Jaguars
0
7
21
10
38
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
476
385
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
7.8
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.28
Passing Yards
323
151
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
11/22(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.08
Rushing Yards
153
234
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.91
-2.12
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-8
Sack EPA
-4.70
-3.34
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
52
Penalty EPA
-2.04
-7.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,447
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
108.1
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
D. Garrard
Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
5
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
13
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29
EPA
EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
3
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
27
26
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
2
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U