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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ jaguars week 14, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-6
31
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph
38
JAXJaguars
7-5
JAX logo
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
54°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
10
7
7
31
Jaguars
0
7
21
10
38

Spread

JAX logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo
Total Yards
476
385
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
7.8
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.28
Passing Yards
323
151
Comp/Att
22/33(67%)
11/22(50%)
Yards / Pass
9.8
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.08
Rushing Yards
153
234
Rush Attempts
25
34
Yards / Rush
6.1
6.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
+0.27
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.91
-2.12
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-8
Sack EPA
-4.70
-3.34
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
52
Penalty EPA
-2.04
-7.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,407
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+2.7
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+2.5
Market Regression
-7.5
Final Difference
108.5
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
-4.6
21
01/03
6.1
86
09/12
-3.2
28
09/19
-6.5
11
10/17
-10.3
3
10/24
2.4
64
10/31
3.7
74
11/07
-4.2
22
11/21
-11.6
2
12/05
3.8
75
D. Garrard headshot

D. Garrard

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
09/19
-7.8
7
09/26
-12.1
2
10/03
8.9
95
10/10
2.5
66
10/18
-5.7
14
10/31
8.9
95
11/14
7.9
93
11/21
-5.7
14
11/28
-2.4
33
12/05
0.7
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Raiders logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
5
26
Yards / Game
10
27
Passing Yards / Game
18
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
11
30
EPA / Pass
22
31
EPA / Rush
5
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
16
23
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
26
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
18
20
Jaguars Offense vs Raiders Defense
Jaguars logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
20
Yards / Game
13
11
Passing Yards / Game
19
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
29

EPA

EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
21
11
EPA / Rush
3
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
6
Interceptions / Game
27
26
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
2
RZ Efficiency
2
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-1
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
L
O
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
U
10/24
45
W
W
O
10/31
30
W
W
U
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/21
-32
L
L
U
11/28
-16
L
L
O
12/05
15
W
W
U
JAX logo

Jaguars

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-25
L
L
U
10/03
3
W
W
O
10/10
10
W
W
O
10/18
-27
L
L
U
10/24
-22
L
L
O
10/31
18
W
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
O
11/21
4
W
W
O
11/28
-4
L
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U