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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ panthers week 16, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-10
6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
53°F
3 mph
17
CARPanthers
5-9
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
53°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
0
3
6
Panthers
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

CAR logo
-9.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
189
271
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
3.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.01
Passing Yards
142
159
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.11
Rushing Yards
47
112
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+2.01
-2.90
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-1.09
+0.31
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
70
97
Penalty EPA
-8.39
-13.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,482
Away nfelo
1,365
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
Value
Ptile
10/14
2.2
63
10/21
0.9
55
10/28
-0.3
48
11/04
4.2
76
11/11
3.8
74
11/18
-3.9
25
11/25
-6.5
11
12/02
5.1
81
12/06
3.0
69
12/16
-0.8
44
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Value
Ptile
10/07
-5.1
18
10/21
1.7
61
10/28
-1.0
42
11/04
3.8
73
11/11
-7.3
9
11/18
0.2
51
11/26
9.6
96
12/02
7.4
91
12/09
15.3
100
12/16
0.6
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Raiders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13

EPA

EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
31
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
16
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
28
18
Panthers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Panthers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
13
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17

EPA

EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
6
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
10
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
3
W
L
O
10/28
10
W
W
O
11/04
-10
L
L
O
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/16
15
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/07
-4
L
L
U
10/21
-5
L
L
U
10/28
-1
L
W
O
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
-22
L
L
O
11/18
-6
L
L
O
11/26
8
W
W
O
12/02
-6
L
L
O
12/09
10
W
W
O
12/16
24
W
W
U