OAKRaiders
4-10
6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
53°F
3 mph
17
CARPanthers
5-9
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
53°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
0
3
6
Panthers
7
7
0
3
17
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
189
271
Total Plays
59
59
Yards / Play
3.2
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.01
Passing Yards
142
159
Comp/Att
20/36(56%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.20
+0.11
Rushing Yards
47
112
Rush Attempts
22
28
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.40
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
16
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
27%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+2.01
-2.90
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-9
-11
Sack EPA
-1.09
+0.31
Penalties
6
10
Penalty Yards
70
97
Penalty EPA
-8.39
-13.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+230
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,367
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+17.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+4.7
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
18
Yards / Game
18
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
21
Rushing Yards / Game
29
13
EPA
EPA / Play
23
22
EPA / Pass
19
16
EPA / Rush
31
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
18
23
Fumbles / Game
16
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
7
4th Down Efficiency
31
20
RZ Efficiency
28
18
Panthers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
13
17
Passing Yards / Game
11
6
Rushing Yards / Game
9
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
32
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
25
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
25
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
24
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U