OAKRaiders
0-2
9
TBD
Gillette Stadium
78°F
11 mph
16
NEPatriots
1-1
TBD
Gillette Stadium
78°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
0
6
0
9
Patriots
0
10
0
6
16
Spread
+14
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
241
297
Total Plays
56
71
Yards / Play
4.3
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
221
Comp/Att
21/34(62%)
24/37(65%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.17
Rushing Yards
67
76
Rush Attempts
22
32
Yards / Rush
3.0
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
9
3rd Down Attempts
13
18
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.37
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.51
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
49
59
Penalty EPA
-5.50
-6.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+351
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,366
Home Field
+117.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
-6.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.3
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
32
12
Passing Yards / Game
29
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
13
EPA
EPA / Play
32
9
EPA / Pass
31
11
EPA / Rush
32
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
28
Interceptions / Game
19
10
Fumbles / Game
28
23
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
10
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
25
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
5
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
6
27
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
14
4th Down Efficiency
3
13
RZ Efficiency
5
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U