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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ rams week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
1-10
0
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
52
LARRams
4-7
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0
Rams
21
17
0
8
46

Spread

LAR logo
-6

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
244
348
Total Plays
75
49
Yards / Play
3.3
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.62
+0.22
Passing Yards
183
176
Comp/Att
29/48(60%)
13/22(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.67
+0.14
Rushing Yards
61
172
Rush Attempts
21
26
Yards / Rush
2.9
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.48
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
22%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
18
8
Red Zone %
NaN%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
--
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
5
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-26.74
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-47
-7
Sack EPA
-13.75
-1.29
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
73
60
Penalty EPA
-7.67
+1.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
LAR logo
Rams-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+235
Home nfelo
1,507
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.5
Home QB Adjustment
+3.2
Away QB Adjustment
-4.4
Market Regression
-8.7
Final Difference
192.8
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.4
Value
Ptile
09/14
3.6
74
09/21
-2.1
35
09/28
-2.3
34
10/12
4.4
80
10/19
-3.3
28
10/26
1.2
59
11/02
-2.3
34
11/09
-1.0
43
11/16
-7.1
10
11/20
-2.5
32
S. Hill headshot

S. Hill

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
6.0
87
10/17
-0.4
47
11/14
1.4
57
11/21
1.3
57
11/25
-2.1
35
12/26
2.3
64
01/02
3.2
70
09/07
-7.7
9
11/16
-0.8
45
11/23
-6.4
13

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Rams Defense
Raiders logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
31
16
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
32
14

EPA

EPA / Play
32
6
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
8
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
28
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
3
1
RZ Efficiency
1
5
Rams Offense vs Raiders Defense
Rams logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
21
32
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
20
22

EPA

EPA / Play
28
25
EPA / Pass
28
27
EPA / Rush
29
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
19
27
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
22
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-16
L
L
O
09/21
-7
L
W
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/19
-11
L
L
U
10/26
-10
L
L
U
11/02
-6
L
W
O
11/09
-24
L
L
O
11/16
-7
L
W
U
11/20
4
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/21
-3
L
L
O
10/05
-6
L
L
O
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
W
O
10/26
-27
L
L
U
11/02
3
W
W
U
11/09
-17
L
L
O
11/16
15
W
W
U
11/23
-3
L
W
O