OAKRaiders
2-1
28
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph
27
BALRavens
3-0
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
0
14
28
Ravens
0
6
6
15
27
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
261
414
Total Plays
54
81
Yards / Play
4.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
282
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
32/53(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.12
Rushing Yards
62
130
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.53
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-4.65
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.96
Penalties
12
10
Penalty Yards
93
105
Penalty EPA
-11.65
-8.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+90
Home nfelo
1,524
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+89.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5
EPA
EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
17
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23
EPA
EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
26
21
EPA / Rush
15
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
19
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U