nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ ravens week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-1
28
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph
27
BALRavens
3-0
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
0
14
28
Ravens
0
6
6
15
27

Spread

OAK logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
261
414
Total Plays
54
81
Yards / Play
4.8
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
282
Comp/Att
25/35(71%)
32/53(60%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.12
Rushing Yards
62
130
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.53
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
13
25
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-4.65
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-16
Sack EPA
--
-5.96
Penalties
12
10
Penalty Yards
93
105
Penalty EPA
-11.65
-8.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BAL logo
BALRavensFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,506
Home Field
+89.2
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+31.1
Net QB Adjustment
-13.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.0
Market Regression
-16.5
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Value
Ptile
11/22
-4.3
19
11/29
6.6
89
12/06
-3.3
27
12/13
-5.3
13
12/20
-2.2
34
12/24
-2.9
29
01/03
-5.3
13
09/11
4.0
78
09/18
8.5
94
09/25
-1.4
37
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
10/01
-8.0
4
10/11
2.8
72
10/18
2.1
65
10/26
-1.5
40
11/01
3.0
73
11/15
5.7
85
11/22
-1.2
42
09/11
-1.5
36
09/18
-0.2
46
09/25
-2.2
33

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Ravens Defense
Raiders logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
9
9
Yards / Game
10
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
5

EPA

EPA / Play
15
6
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
17
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
23
Ravens Offense vs Raiders Defense
Ravens logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
17
24
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
23

EPA

EPA / Play
19
14
EPA / Pass
26
21
EPA / Rush
15
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
19
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
13
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
19
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
P
12/06
-14
L
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
7
W
W
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
3
W
P
U
11/30
6
W
W
O
12/06
-2
L
W
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-20
L
L
O
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
-8
L
W
U
09/11
6
W
W
U
09/18
5
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U