OAKRaiders
2-4
0
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
024
NOSaints
2-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
0
0
0
Saints
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
183
367
Total Plays
56
63
Yards / Play
3.3
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.40
+0.09
Passing Yards
145
--
Comp/Att
23/39(59%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
--
EPA / Pass
-0.35
+0.30
Rushing Yards
38
136
Rush Attempts
13
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.54
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
22
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.20
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-28
--
Sack EPA
-5.27
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
59
27
Penalty EPA
-9.91
-4.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+67.0
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+14.1
Net QB Adjustment
-27.8
Home QB Adjustment
-28.4
Away QB Adjustment
-0.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
A. Dalton
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-28.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
9
Yards / Game
12
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
12
Rushing Yards / Game
17
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
14
6
EPA / Rush
13
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
28
30
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
8
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
7
RZ Efficiency
26
5
Saints Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
26
Yards / Game
18
27
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
19
19
EPA
EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
13
30
EPA / Rush
29
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
25
25
Turnover EPA / Game
5
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
20
RZ Efficiency
21
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U