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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ steelers week 9, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
4-3
35
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
54°F
5 mph
38
PITSteelers
4-4
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
54°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
7
14
35
Steelers
3
18
0
17
38

Spread

OAK logo
+6

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
440
599
Total Plays
69
82
Yards / Play
6.4
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.12
+0.11
Passing Yards
--
404
Comp/Att
24/44(55%)
28/51(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.13
Rushing Yards
139
195
Rush Attempts
25
30
Yards / Rush
5.6
6.5
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
24
27
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
17
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
5
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
4
0
Turnover EPA
-10.50
-2.46
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-2.38
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
21
42
Penalty EPA
-1.98
-3.04

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model75.2%
Spread Pick
PIT logo
Steelers-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+17.9%
Cover Probability
59.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+235
Home nfelo
1,571
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+95.0
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.2
Home QB Adjustment
+29.5
Away QB Adjustment
+29.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
193.0
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+29.7
Value
Ptile
12/14
-5.8
16
12/21
1.6
62
12/28
-7.2
10
09/13
-4.1
20
09/20
8.0
94
09/27
5.9
87
10/04
-2.8
31
10/11
-2.1
34
10/25
7.2
92
11/01
9.4
96
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.5
Value
Ptile
11/30
2.6
69
12/07
8.7
93
12/14
4.1
78
12/21
1.4
60
12/28
4.3
79
01/03
-1.1
43
09/10
2.6
69
09/20
11.0
98
09/27
-3.3
26
11/01
-6.2
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Raiders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
9
Yards / Game
24
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5

EPA

EPA / Play
19
9
EPA / Pass
21
13
EPA / Rush
20
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
12
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
15
4th Down Efficiency
27
4
RZ Efficiency
8
6
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Steelers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
7
22
Yards / Game
3
22
Passing Yards / Game
13
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
13

EPA

EPA / Play
9
19
EPA / Pass
12
14
EPA / Rush
7
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
29
15
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
16
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
11
4th Down Efficiency
29
19
RZ Efficiency
13
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-18
L
L
O
12/21
2
W
W
O
12/28
-33
L
L
O
09/13
-20
L
L
O
09/20
4
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
U
10/11
-6
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
W
O
11/01
14
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
6-3-1
ATS
1-9
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/03
-13
L
L
U
09/10
-7
L
W
U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
6
W
W
U
10/01
-3
L
P
U
10/12
4
W
W
U
10/18
12
W
W
U
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
-6
L
L
U