OAKRaiders
3-8
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
28°F
6 mph
24
PITSteelers
6-5
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
28°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
3
0
21
27
Steelers
3
7
0
14
24
Spread
+15
Total
OVER
37
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
396
401
Total Plays
65
52
Yards / Play
6.1
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.19
Passing Yards
287
269
Comp/Att
20/34(59%)
18/24(75%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
11.2
EPA / Pass
+0.41
+0.33
Rushing Yards
109
132
Rush Attempts
28
27
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
19
Passing 1st downs
14
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.54
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-9
Sack EPA
-3.98
-2.35
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
70
41
Penalty EPA
-7.27
-3.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-15.5
Current
-15.0
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market88.4%
Model89.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+403
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,333
Home Field
+96.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
+24.6
Home QB Adjustment
+14.9
Away QB Adjustment
-9.7
Market Regression
-2.0
Final Difference
363.0
Model Spread
-15.5
Quarterbacks
B. Gradkowski
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+14.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
11
Yards / Game
31
6
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
5
EPA
EPA / Play
29
22
EPA / Pass
30
13
EPA / Rush
22
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
22
25
Fumbles / Game
32
16
Turnover EPA / Game
11
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
28
4th Down Efficiency
18
30
RZ Efficiency
29
6
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
23
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
20
29
EPA
EPA / Play
7
26
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
19
23
Turnover EPA / Game
13
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
7
4th Down Efficiency
4
28
RZ Efficiency
26
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U