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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ steelers week 16, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
6-8
10
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
9°F
21 mph
13
PITSteelers
6-8
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
9°F
21 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
0
10
Steelers
0
3
0
10
13

Spread

PIT logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
201
350
Total Plays
52
66
Yards / Play
3.9
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.13
Passing Yards
143
--
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.04
Rushing Yards
58
106
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
3.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.53
-5.88
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-31
--
Sack EPA
-5.41
--
Penalties
2
3
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-1.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model48.8%
Spread Pick
OAK logo
Raiders+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.8%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-49
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+19.1
Base HFA
+41.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-22.1
Net QB Adjustment
-28.2
Home QB Adjustment
-32.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.8
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
-8.1
Model Spread
+0.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.8
Value
Ptile
10/10
-0.2
51
10/23
2.3
71
10/30
-9.0
4
11/06
0.2
54
11/13
1.8
66
11/20
5.5
87
11/27
3.2
77
12/04
-0.1
52
12/08
-6.6
11
12/18
-0.5
49
K. Pickett headshot

K. Pickett

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-32.0
Value
Ptile
10/09
1.3
61
10/16
-2.5
32
10/23
-2.3
34
10/30
-5.7
14
11/13
-1.8
39
11/20
1.8
67
11/28
-2.0
38
12/04
-1.6
42
12/11
-7.0
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Steelers Defense
Raiders logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
12
11
Passing Yards / Game
15
8
Rushing Yards / Game
17
9

EPA

EPA / Play
13
24
EPA / Pass
14
29
EPA / Rush
13
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
28
1
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
16
4th Down Efficiency
9
26
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Steelers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Steelers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
26
26
Yards / Game
23
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19

EPA

EPA / Play
19
25
EPA / Pass
16
30
EPA / Rush
11
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
25
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
1
25
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
25
4th Down Efficiency
3
20
RZ Efficiency
24
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-1
L
W
O
10/23
18
W
W
O
10/30
-24
L
L
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
-5
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
O
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/08
-1
L
L
U
12/18
6
W
W
O
PIT logo

Steelers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/09
-35
L
L
U
10/16
2
W
W
U
10/23
-6
L
W
U
10/30
-22
L
L
O
11/13
10
W
W
U
11/20
-7
L
L
O
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/04
3
W
W
U
12/11
-2
L
L
U
12/18
8
W
W
O