OAKRaiders
2-2
25
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
3-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
9
3
10
25
Texans
7
7
3
3
20
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
278
473
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.14
Passing Yards
184
403
Comp/Att
15/36(42%)
24/51(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.02
Rushing Yards
94
70
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
20
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.54
-9.41
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-3.23
-1.83
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
89
50
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-5.86
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
Texans-4.5
Expected Value
+16.7%
Cover Probability
61.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,620
Away nfelo
1,471
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
-6.9
Final Difference
174.4
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Campbell
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
8
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
11
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U