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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ texans week 5, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-2
25
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
3-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
9
3
10
25
Texans
7
7
3
3
20

Spread

OAK logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
278
473
Total Plays
61
79
Yards / Play
4.6
6.0
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.14
Passing Yards
184
403
Comp/Att
15/36(42%)
24/51(47%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.02
Rushing Yards
94
70
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
11
21
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
15
20
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-1.54
-9.41
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-3.23
-1.83
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
89
50
Penalty EPA
-7.26
-5.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model73.1%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.7%
Cover Probability
61.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,617
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
+84.9
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+4.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.6
Market Regression
-7.1
Final Difference
174.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.6
Value
Ptile
11/21
-11.6
2
12/05
3.8
75
12/12
4.1
76
12/19
0.7
52
12/26
0.8
54
01/02
0.4
51
09/12
-0.9
45
09/18
8.4
95
09/25
0.4
55
10/02
3.6
75
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
11/28
2.3
64
12/02
3.6
73
12/13
2.1
63
12/19
1.4
57
12/26
3.6
73
01/02
4.5
79
09/11
-2.5
33
09/18
1.9
66
09/25
4.4
78
10/02
1.2
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Texans Defense
Raiders logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
9
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
11
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
2
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
8
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
24
Interceptions / Game
27
12
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
11
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
23
11
Texans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Texans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
13
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
27

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
10
25
EPA / Rush
11
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
30
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
20
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
25
4th Down Efficiency
30
5
RZ Efficiency
22
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
-16
L
L
O
12/05
15
W
W
U
12/12
-7
L
L
O
12/19
16
W
W
O
12/26
-5
L
L
O
01/02
21
W
W
U
09/12
3
W
W
O
09/18
-3
L
W
O
09/25
10
W
W
O
10/02
-12
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/28
20
W
W
U
12/02
-10
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
O
12/19
-14
L
L
O
12/26
-1
L
L
U
01/02
17
W
W
O
09/11
27
W
W
U
09/18
10
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
O
10/02
7
W
W
U