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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ titans week 1, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
-
26
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
7 mph
16
TENTitans
-
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
72°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
6
3
10
26
Titans
7
3
3
3
16

Spread

OAK logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
359
350
Total Plays
63
63
Yards / Play
5.7
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.08
Passing Yards
250
255
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
25/41(61%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.11
Rushing Yards
109
95
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
3.8
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
16
15
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
42%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-12
-1
Sack EPA
-3.05
-1.01
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
49
49
Penalty EPA
-5.75
-6.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+43
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+78.9
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
+27.4
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
10/16
-0.8
43
10/23
0.2
51
10/30
14.4
100
11/06
-1.3
38
11/21
5.4
84
11/27
2.1
65
12/04
2.8
71
12/08
-8.2
4
12/18
-2.8
28
12/24
5.1
83
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.1
Value
Ptile
10/16
6.2
87
10/23
-0.2
46
10/27
6.2
87
11/06
6.3
88
11/13
7.5
91
11/20
1.2
58
11/27
5.9
86
12/11
-5.5
13
12/18
-3.3
24
12/24
-6.1
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Titans Defense
Raiders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
19
Yards / Game
18
15
Passing Yards / Game
30
29
Rushing Yards / Game
25
4

EPA

EPA / Play
15
23
EPA / Pass
16
23
EPA / Rush
22
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
13
Interceptions / Game
20
23
Fumbles / Game
31
17
Turnover EPA / Game
13
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Titans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Titans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
20
20
Yards / Game
21
24
Passing Yards / Game
23
23
Rushing Yards / Game
9
11

EPA

EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
10
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
26
32
Fumbles / Game
11
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
25
4th Down Efficiency
8
30
RZ Efficiency
16
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/21
7
W
W
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
14
W
W
O
12/08
-8
L
L
U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
8
W
W
O
01/01
-18
L
L
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-8
L
L
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/06
-8
L
L
O
11/13
22
W
W
O
11/20
-7
L
L
U
11/27
6
W
L
O
12/11
3
W
W
U
12/18
2
W
W
U
12/24
-21
L
L
O
01/01
7
W
W
U