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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ titans week 3, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
1-1
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
89°F
2 mph
10
TENTitans
1-1
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
89°F
2 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
10
0
0
17
Titans
3
0
7
0
10

Spread

OAK logo
-1.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
368
393
Total Plays
61
63
Yards / Play
6.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.15
Passing Yards
245
212
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.29
Rushing Yards
123
181
Rush Attempts
25
29
Yards / Rush
4.9
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
10
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.39
-7.65
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-4
-2
Sack EPA
-1.78
-1.06
Penalties
8
8
Penalty Yards
58
70
Penalty EPA
-7.10
-4.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.5
Model
+0.5

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model49.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,439
Away nfelo
1,475
Home Field
+79.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
-9.1
Home QB Adjustment
+6.0
Away QB Adjustment
+15.1
Market Regression
-5.7
Final Difference
7.0
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.1
Value
Ptile
11/15
1.3
61
11/22
-4.3
19
11/29
6.6
89
12/06
-3.3
27
12/13
-5.3
13
12/20
-2.2
34
12/24
-2.9
29
01/03
-5.3
13
09/11
4.0
78
09/18
8.5
94
M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
10/18
-7.9
4
11/08
10.8
98
11/15
-1.3
41
11/19
-1.1
43
11/29
-4.2
20
12/06
9.1
95
12/13
-7.1
7
12/20
-8.0
4
09/11
1.6
61
09/18
0.5
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Titans Defense
Raiders logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
10
20
Passing Yards / Game
26
24
Rushing Yards / Game
6
4

EPA

EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
17
23
EPA / Rush
17
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
15
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
20
18
RZ Efficiency
13
7
Titans Offense vs Raiders Defense
Titans logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
20
Yards / Game
11
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
19
Rushing Yards / Game
3
23

EPA

EPA / Play
13
14
EPA / Pass
13
21
EPA / Rush
11
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
16
7
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
1
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-4-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
-5
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
P
12/06
-14
L
L
O
12/13
3
W
W
U
12/20
-10
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
U
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/11
1
W
W
O
09/18
-7
L
L
O
TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/15
-17
L
L
U
11/19
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
P
12/06
3
W
P
O
12/13
-22
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/11
-9
L
L
O
09/18
1
W
W
U