LARRams
0-3
0
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
17 mph
35
SF49ers
2-1
TBD
Candlestick Park
60°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
0
0
0
49ers
0
7
8
8
23
Spread
-9.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
177
228
Total Plays
57
57
Yards / Play
3.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.59
+0.03
Passing Yards
82
132
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
14/24(58%)
Yards / Pass
3.4
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.52
-0.13
Rushing Yards
95
96
Rush Attempts
28
29
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.52
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
13
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
31%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.58
+7.04
Sacks
5
4
Sack Yards
-26
-20
Sack EPA
-5.61
-6.43
Penalties
10
3
Penalty Yards
73
--
Penalty EPA
-9.07
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,318
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-19.2
Home QB Adjustment
+3.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
-34.9
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
K. Boller
Proj. Value
-3.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
4
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
32
2
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
12
Interceptions / Game
29
10
Fumbles / Game
19
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
29
4
RZ Efficiency
31
2
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
27
29
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
24
27
EPA
EPA / Play
23
31
EPA / Pass
21
30
EPA / Rush
20
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
7
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
15
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
0-10
SU
4-6
ATS
1-2-7
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
1-2-7
O/U