LARRams
2-1
9
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
024
SF49ers
1-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
3
0
9
49ers
7
7
0
4
18
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
257
327
Total Plays
73
49
Yards / Play
3.5
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.04
Passing Yards
200
--
Comp/Att
32/48(67%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
4.2
--
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.40
Rushing Yards
57
88
Rush Attempts
18
22
Yards / Rush
3.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
13
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.48
--
Sacks
7
--
Sack Yards
-54
--
Sack EPA
-11.53
--
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-4.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+34.5
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.0
Home QB Adjustment
+12.0
Away QB Adjustment
-7.0
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.0
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
1
Yards / Game
32
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
27
2
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
27
Interceptions / Game
22
2
Fumbles / Game
11
19
Turnover EPA / Game
4
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
16
RZ Efficiency
14
20
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
20
Yards / Game
6
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
11
Rushing Yards / Game
7
13
EPA
EPA / Play
6
19
EPA / Pass
2
26
EPA / Rush
23
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
3
Interceptions / Game
3
7
Fumbles / Game
26
30
Turnover EPA / Game
31
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
31
RZ Efficiency
19
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
1-9
O/U