LARRams
6-0
39
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
5 mph
10
SF49ers
1-5
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
17
10
7
37
49ers
0
7
3
0
10
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
339
228
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
5.6
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.49
Passing Yards
193
121
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.87
Rushing Yards
146
107
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
57%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-20.50
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-9
-49
Sack EPA
-2.17
-16.29
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
10
Penalty EPA
--
-1.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-210
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.5
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-62.6
Home QB Adjustment
-41.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
+23.6
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
C. Beathard
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-41.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
3
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
19
26
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17
EPA
EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
28
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
32
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U