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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 7, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
6-0
39
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
5 mph
10
SF49ers
1-5
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
62°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
17
10
7
37
49ers
0
7
3
0
10

Spread

LAR logo
-9

Total

UNDER
52

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
339
228
Total Plays
61
58
Yards / Play
5.6
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
-0.49
Passing Yards
193
121
Comp/Att
18/24(75%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.87
Rushing Yards
146
107
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
20
16
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
10
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
57%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-20.50
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-9
-49
Sack EPA
-2.17
-16.29
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
10
Penalty EPA
--
-1.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-208
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,664
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-62.6
Home QB Adjustment
-41.4
Away QB Adjustment
+21.2
Market Regression
+17.0
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Value
Ptile
12/10
0.9
59
12/17
-2.9
32
12/24
5.6
87
01/06
-2.9
33
09/10
0.3
49
09/16
3.0
70
09/23
9.7
95
09/27
16.2
99
10/07
2.1
63
10/14
-9.0
6
C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-41.4
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6
11/05
-5.8
16
11/12
6.3
88
11/26
-4.9
20
09/30
1.0
53
10/07
1.4
56
10/15
1.5
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
20
Rushing Yards / Game
3
13

EPA

EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
5
28
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
9
Interceptions / Game
12
32
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
19
18
RZ Efficiency
19
26
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
14
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
17

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
20
10
EPA / Rush
28
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
30
5
Fumbles / Game
25
6
Turnover EPA / Game
1
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
21
RZ Efficiency
32
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
35
W
W
O
12/24
4
W
L
O
12/31
-21
L
L
O
01/06
-13
L
L
U
09/10
20
W
W
U
09/16
34
W
W
U
09/23
12
W
W
O
09/27
7
W
L
O
10/07
2
W
L
O
10/14
3
W
L
U
SF logo

49ers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/10
10
W
W
U
12/17
2
W
L
O
12/24
11
W
W
O
12/31
21
W
W
O
09/09
-8
L
L
U
09/16
3
W
L
O
09/23
-11
L
L
O
09/30
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-10
L
L
O
10/15
-3
L
W
O