LARRams
2-5
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
8 mph
10
SF49ers
4-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
7
0
3
13
49ers
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
263
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
3.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.25
Passing Yards
102
183
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.19
Rushing Yards
91
80
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-9.78
Sacks
1
8
Sack Yards
-3
-54
Sack EPA
-0.66
-16.04
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
83
44
Penalty EPA
-8.54
-6.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+229
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+65.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-63.0
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
A. Davis
Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.0
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
29
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
22
28
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
20
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U