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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 9, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
2-5
13
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
8 mph
10
SF49ers
4-3
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
7
0
3
13
49ers
3
7
0
0
10

Spread

LAR logo
+10.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
193
263
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
3.7
4.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
-0.25
Passing Yards
102
183
Comp/Att
13/24(54%)
22/33(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
5.5
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.19
Rushing Yards
91
80
Rush Attempts
27
21
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
13
20
Passing 1st downs
8
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
33%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
4
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-9.78
Sacks
1
8
Sack Yards
-3
-54
Sack EPA
-0.66
-16.04
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
83
44
Penalty EPA
-8.54
-6.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+229
Home nfelo
1,584
Away nfelo
1,494
Home Field
+74.0
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+65.2
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
-63.0
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

A. Davis headshot

A. Davis

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-63.0
Value
Ptile
09/14
-0.4
47
09/21
4.9
81
10/05
5.5
84
10/13
-7.0
10
10/19
3.1
72
10/26
-9.3
5
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Value
Ptile
01/05
2.2
66
01/12
2.0
64
01/19
4.5
81
09/07
1.6
63
09/14
-3.4
28
09/21
7.3
89
09/28
-0.7
45
10/05
-3.1
29
10/13
10.4
97
10/19
-4.3
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
27
5
Passing Yards / Game
25
14
Rushing Yards / Game
20
7

EPA

EPA / Play
28
18
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
29
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
19
1
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
2
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
22
28
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
4
14

EPA

EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
18
12
EPA / Rush
20
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
17
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
1
RZ Efficiency
29
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/15
11
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
U
09/07
-28
L
L
U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/21
-3
L
L
O
10/05
-6
L
L
O
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/19
2
W
W
O
10/26
-27
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/05
3
W
P
U
01/12
13
W
W
U
01/19
-6
L
L
P
09/07
11
W
W
U
09/14
-8
L
L
O
09/21
-9
L
L
U
09/28
5
W
W
U
10/05
5
W
W
U
10/13
14
W
W
O
10/19
-25
L
L
O