LARRams
4-4
20
TBD
Candlestick Park
74°F
5 mph
23
SF49ers
2-6
TBD
Candlestick Park
74°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
3
7
7
3
0
20
49ers
7
3
0
10
3
23
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
421
Total Plays
69
59
Yards / Play
4.8
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
228
323
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.5
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.24
Rushing Yards
104
98
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
14%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
2
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-23
-33
Sack EPA
-4.62
-9.05
Penalties
12
14
Penalty Yards
135
105
Penalty EPA
-14.41
-12.03
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+125
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,371
Home Field
+25.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
-37.8
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
T. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
29
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
31
9
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17
EPA
EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
15
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
25
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U