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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 10, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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LAR logo
LARRams
4-4
20
TBD
Candlestick Park
74°F
5 mph
23
SF49ers
2-6
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
74°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Rams
3
7
7
3
0
20
49ers
7
3
0
10
3
23

Spread

LAR logo
+5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
332
421
Total Plays
69
59
Yards / Play
4.8
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.11
Passing Yards
228
323
Comp/Att
30/42(71%)
17/28(61%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
11.5
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.24
Rushing Yards
104
98
Rush Attempts
24
26
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
14%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
2
--
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
67%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-23
-33
Sack EPA
-4.62
-9.05
Penalties
12
14
Penalty Yards
135
105
Penalty EPA
-14.41
-12.03

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+121
Home nfelo
1,496
Away nfelo
1,375
Home Field
+25.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-24.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+12.4
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.0
18
09/19
-2.8
30
09/26
-0.4
46
10/03
-1.3
41
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
-0.6
45
10/24
-0.9
43
10/31
4.3
77
T. Smith headshot

T. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
12/23
0.5
54
12/30
0.7
55
10/31
3.6
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
16
Yards / Game
27
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
25
6

EPA

EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
29
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
13
17
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
17
4th Down Efficiency
11
1
RZ Efficiency
31
9
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
24
18
Passing Yards / Game
20
18
Rushing Yards / Game
20
17

EPA

EPA / Play
24
5
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
15
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
18
Interceptions / Game
13
19
Fumbles / Game
3
10
Turnover EPA / Game
22
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
3
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
25
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
-21
L
L
U
01/03
-22
L
L
U
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
W
U
09/26
14
W
W
O
10/03
17
W
W
U
10/10
-38
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
U
10/31
10
W
W
U
SF logo

49ers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/27
14
W
P
U
01/03
22
W
W
U
09/12
-25
L
L
P
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/26
-21
L
L
O
10/03
-2
L
W
U
10/10
-3
L
L
O
10/17
8
W
L
U
10/24
-3
L
L
O
10/31
8
W
W
U