LARRams
2-9
0
TBD
Candlestick Park
53°F
2 mph
26
SF49ers
9-2
TBD
Candlestick Park
53°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
0
0
0
0
49ers
3
6
10
7
26
Spread
-14
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
157
389
Total Plays
49
63
Yards / Play
3.2
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.49
+0.05
Passing Yards
126
245
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
9.8
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.37
Rushing Yards
31
144
Rush Attempts
23
34
Yards / Rush
1.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.58
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
18
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
--
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
23%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
NaN%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
--
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.74
--
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-30
-29
Sack EPA
-9.25
-4.54
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
35
72
Penalty EPA
-3.79
-0.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-14.0
Model
-14.0
Win Probability
Market87.3%
Model87.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+299
Home nfelo
1,588
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.1
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
-27.3
Market Regression
+16.6
Final Difference
334.9
Model Spread
-14.0
Quarterbacks
A. Feeley
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-27.3
A. Smith
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
2
Yards / Game
31
7
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
23
1
EPA
EPA / Play
32
1
EPA / Pass
31
5
EPA / Rush
32
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
7
Interceptions / Game
3
2
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
13
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
24
11
RZ Efficiency
31
4
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
25
Yards / Game
24
21
Passing Yards / Game
29
14
Rushing Yards / Game
8
31
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
14
20
EPA / Rush
17
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
1
Interceptions / Game
1
23
Fumbles / Game
8
29
Turnover EPA / Game
32
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
49ers
8-2
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U