LARRams
5-6
13
TBD
Candlestick Park
59°F
6 mph
23
SF49ers
7-4
TBD
Candlestick Park
59°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
7
13
49ers
3
10
3
7
23
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
312
338
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.08
Passing Yards
198
255
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.47
Rushing Yards
114
83
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.22
-4.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-20
Sack EPA
-4.05
-4.82
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
105
85
Penalty EPA
-9.89
-4.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model79.6%
Spread Pick
49ers-7.5
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+277
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-56.3
Market Regression
-8.5
Final Difference
236.3
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
K. Clemens
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-56.3
C. Kaepernick
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4
EPA
EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
27
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
26
6
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
17
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
16
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
49ers
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U