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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ 49ers week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAR logo
LARRams
5-6
13
TBD
Candlestick Park
59°F
6 mph
23
SF49ers
7-4
SF logo
TBD
Candlestick Park
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
3
3
7
13
49ers
3
10
3
7
23

Spread

SF logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
312
338
Total Plays
67
62
Yards / Play
4.7
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.08
Passing Yards
198
255
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
19/28(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
9.1
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.47
Rushing Yards
114
83
Rush Attempts
26
30
Yards / Rush
4.4
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
6
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Rams logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.22
-4.42
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-20
-20
Sack EPA
-4.05
-4.82
Penalties
11
9
Penalty Yards
105
85
Penalty EPA
-9.89
-4.41

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model79.6%
Spread Pick
SF logo
49ers-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.0%
Cover Probability
62.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,655
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+43.1
Home QB Adjustment
-13.1
Away QB Adjustment
-56.3
Market Regression
-8.4
Final Difference
236.9
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

K. Clemens headshot

K. Clemens

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-56.3
Value
Ptile
12/16
-6.2
10
12/30
-3.5
29
12/13
-3.9
24
12/18
1.6
63
12/24
-7.0
10
01/01
-0.5
47
10/28
-8.2
7
11/03
0.1
50
11/10
0.9
56
11/24
-3.9
25
C. Kaepernick headshot

C. Kaepernick

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.1
Value
Ptile
09/15
-6.8
12
09/22
-7.9
8
09/26
0.2
51
10/06
-2.0
39
10/13
1.0
57
10/20
3.9
77
10/27
6.9
90
11/10
-11.4
2
11/17
-2.9
33
11/25
3.0
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs 49ers Defense
Rams logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
30
5
Passing Yards / Game
31
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
4
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
27
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
22
Interceptions / Game
8
13
Fumbles / Game
22
26
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
10
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
26
6
49ers Offense vs Rams Defense
49ers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
13
12
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
28
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9

EPA

EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
17
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
26
1
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
22
RZ Efficiency
16
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-7
L
L
O
09/22
-24
L
L
U
09/26
-24
L
L
O
10/06
14
W
W
O
10/13
25
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
O
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
SF logo

49ers

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-26
L
L
U
09/22
-20
L
L
U
09/26
24
W
W
O
10/06
31
W
W
U
10/13
12
W
W
O
10/20
14
W
W
O
10/27
32
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
U
11/25
21
W
W
U