LARRams
11-1
6
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
4 mph
15
CHIBears
8-4
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
3
3
0
0
6
Bears
3
3
7
0
13
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
214
294
Total Plays
61
66
Yards / Play
3.5
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.32
Passing Yards
162
100
Comp/Att
21/45(47%)
16/30(53%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
3.3
EPA / Pass
-0.44
-0.48
Rushing Yards
52
194
Rush Attempts
13
35
Yards / Rush
4.0
5.5
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
17
Passing 1st downs
9
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
4
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-12.47
-14.37
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-10
Sack EPA
-5.38
-1.98
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
57
--
Penalty EPA
-6.47
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model55.1%
Spread Pick
Bears+3.0
Expected Value
+6.4%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+0
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,669
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.5
Net QB Adjustment
+17.1
Home QB Adjustment
+39.4
Away QB Adjustment
+22.2
Market Regression
+13.4
Final Difference
-35.5
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.2
M. Trubisky
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+39.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
1
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
12
Rushing Yards / Game
3
1
EPA
EPA / Play
3
1
EPA / Pass
5
3
EPA / Rush
3
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
24
Interceptions / Game
12
1
Fumbles / Game
6
17
Turnover EPA / Game
28
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
19
17
RZ Efficiency
19
4
Bears Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
18
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
13
15
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
17
EPA / Pass
12
10
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
26
Interceptions / Game
20
5
Fumbles / Game
20
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
10
21
RZ Efficiency
12
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
9-1
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U