LARRams
4-6
36
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
12 mph
33
DENBroncos
3-7
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
19
7
3
36
Broncos
10
3
0
20
33
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
431
449
Total Plays
74
63
Yards / Play
5.8
7.1
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.16
Passing Yards
308
330
Comp/Att
22/37(59%)
24/42(57%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.58
+0.29
Rushing Yards
123
119
Rush Attempts
35
18
Yards / Rush
3.5
6.6
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
16
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
38%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
6
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.28
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
--
-17
Sack EPA
-0.98
-2.49
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
--
60
Penalty EPA
--
-6.98
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
Broncos-3.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+135
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,364
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+16.5
Away QB Adjustment
+21.0
Market Regression
-13.4
Final Difference
91.9
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.0
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
32
Yards / Game
27
32
Passing Yards / Game
16
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
31
EPA
EPA / Play
30
31
EPA / Pass
26
30
EPA / Rush
29
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
10
Interceptions / Game
13
31
Fumbles / Game
1
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
11
27
RZ Efficiency
31
26
Broncos Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
11
Yards / Game
11
18
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
26
17
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
30
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
18
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
26
10
Turnover EPA / Game
16
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
3
4th Down Efficiency
30
19
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
4-6
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U