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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ buccaneers week 2, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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LAR logo
LARRams
0-1
19
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
8 mph
17
TBBuccaneers
0-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
88°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
7
3
3
6
19
Buccaneers
7
0
7
3
17

Spread

LAR logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
339
332
Total Plays
60
52
Yards / Play
5.7
6.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.09
Passing Yards
220
175
Comp/Att
22/29(76%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.43
+0.12
Rushing Yards
119
157
Rush Attempts
29
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.21
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
14
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
33%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.19
-4.40
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-4
Sack EPA
-3.16
-1.98
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model69.0%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+0.9%
Cover Probability
52.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+176
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+130.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
-116.0
Market Regression
+4.3
Final Difference
138.8
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Davis headshot

A. Davis

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-116.0
No recent game data available
J. McCown headshot

J. McCown

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
12/16
0.2
51
12/23
-4.6
21
12/25
1.9
65
01/01
-8.8
3
11/04
3.6
75
11/17
-0.2
49
11/24
8.2
92
12/01
1.9
63
12/09
12.6
99
09/07
-2.2
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
21
25
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18

EPA

EPA / Play
28
24
EPA / Pass
28
28
EPA / Rush
29
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
3
Interceptions / Game
19
16
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
27
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
29
16
Yards / Game
30
18
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
29
6
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
25
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
8
Interceptions / Game
31
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
29
1
RZ Efficiency
18
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-5
L
W
U
11/03
-7
L
L
O
11/10
30
W
W
O
11/24
21
W
W
O
12/01
-10
L
L
U
12/08
-20
L
L
U
12/15
11
W
W
U
12/22
10
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
U
09/07
-28
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-3
L
W
O
11/11
3
W
W
O
11/17
13
W
W
O
11/24
3
W
W
U
12/01
-21
L
L
U
12/08
21
W
W
U
12/15
-19
L
L
O
12/22
-10
L
L
U
12/29
-25
L
L
O
09/07
-6
L
L
U