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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. rams @ buccaneers week 7, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAR logo
LARRams
3-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
9 mph
18
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
17
0
0
17
Buccaneers
3
3
6
6
18

Spread

LAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
285
313
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.05
Passing Yards
124
189
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.05
Rushing Yards
161
124
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.12
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-23
Sack EPA
-3.12
-4.30
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
45
92
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-11.70

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model63.9%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,347
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
+27.5
Final Difference
99.6
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
09/12
-5.0
18
09/19
-2.8
30
09/26
-0.4
46
10/03
-1.3
41
10/10
-6.7
10
10/17
-0.6
45
J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
-7.1
10
12/13
-11.5
1
12/20
0.2
52
12/27
-2.7
33
01/03
-6.7
12
09/12
0.3
51
09/19
5.1
83
09/26
-3.3
27
10/10
0.9
55
10/17
2.0
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Rams logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
29
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Buccaneers logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17

EPA

EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
17
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/13
-40
L
L
O
12/20
-3
L
W
U
12/27
-21
L
L
U
01/03
-22
L
L
U
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/19
-2
L
W
U
09/26
14
W
W
O
10/03
17
W
W
U
10/10
-38
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
-10
L
L
U
12/13
-23
L
L
U
12/20
17
W
W
U
12/27
3
W
W
U
01/03
-10
L
L
U
09/12
3
W
W
U
09/19
13
W
W
U
09/26
-25
L
L
O
10/10
3
W
W
O
10/17
-25
L
L
U