LARRams
3-3
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
9 mph
18
TBBuccaneers
3-2
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
84°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Rams
0
17
0
0
17
Buccaneers
3
3
6
6
18
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
285
313
Total Plays
59
65
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.05
Passing Yards
124
189
Comp/Att
13/26(50%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.05
Rushing Yards
161
124
Rush Attempts
32
22
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.11
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
10
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.12
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-23
Sack EPA
-3.12
-4.30
Penalties
6
12
Penalty Yards
45
92
Penalty EPA
-5.32
-11.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model64.2%
Spread Pick
Buccaneers-3.0
Expected Value
+7.0%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+141
Home nfelo
1,380
Away nfelo
1,342
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.1
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
101.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
J. Freeman
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
7
Yards / Game
27
15
Passing Yards / Game
16
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
30
22
EPA / Pass
26
14
EPA / Rush
29
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
23
Interceptions / Game
13
8
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
19
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
21
RZ Efficiency
31
19
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
17
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
17
EPA
EPA / Play
12
5
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
2
19
Fumbles / Game
19
10
Turnover EPA / Game
24
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
19
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Rams
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U